Wind Regime Analysis And Reserve Estimation (case Study: - Kenya)

Abstract

Kenya is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the low water levels in its major dams caused by recurrent droughts. This has resultedin the deployment of expensive thermal power generation for both standby and base load generation. With a view to addressing this problem, the government has undertaken significant steps in promoting renewable power generation. Wind energy is widely seen as one of the most cost-effective ways to generate electricity among renewables. After the introduction of feed in tariff in 2007 by the government, investors began showing interest in wind energy. Wind energy is projected to surpass20% of installed capacity by the end of 2015. However, introduction of a significant amount of wind energy into a power system introduces the challenge variability and uncertainty. For correct operation of the power system, it is essential to balance the generation and load. Asa result, the time-varying patterns of wind power production has to be taken into account in order to ensure security of supply. The objective of this study istoanalyse the wind regime at three site (Ngong, Kinangop and Turkana) andquantify the reserverequirements for Kenya. In this study, the impacts of large-scale wind power production (exceeding 20% of installed capacity) have been takeninto account with the consideration the time varying patterns of wind power production. The first step was to analyse the wind speed data using Windographer software. This was done through a six month monitoring cycle. After which acommon set of statistical parameters have been employed to evaluate the site’s wind regime. This includedthe means, the standard deviations and the ranges. In addition to wind speed analysis, Weibull analysis was used to determine the site’s wind speed variability. The results of the wind speedanalysiswasplotted over time to assess the patterns and seasonal trends. The next step, windspeed data was further………….