A Theoretical Study and Evaluation of Kenya's Level of Voting for Presidential Position.

Abstract

Evaluating the level of voting for presidential post is of paramount importance to the country's political, social and economic well being, not only in Kenya, but also in other parts of the world, due to the significant importance of presidency. For effective planning and management of future presidential elections, sound evaluation of the level of voting for presidential post is needed. In this study, we outline the use of Malthusian growth model (also referred to as Exponential growth law) in evaluating the level of voting for presidential post in Kenya. Multinomial distribution is also used to study and model the population of the country and consequently the level of voting for presidential post in the country. Here, the country is partitioned into provinces not necessarily of equal population size. Based on the results obtained from study, we note that exponential growth model can be used to evaluate the level of voting for presidential post. We also note that Central province, on average, vote at a higher level in any presidential elections compared to the other provinces in the country. It was also found out that North Eastern province has the highest estimated population growth rate compared to the other provinces in the country with Central province having the lowest estimated population growth rate. The country has an estimated population growth rate of 2.51% per annum. It was further found out that Nairobi province has the highest number of persons aged 18 years and above but vote at a poor level in the presidential elections as compared to the other provinces.