A Load Forecasting System

Abstract

This load forecast covers national electricity sales and generation requirements for the national power system and for the six major regions of the country over a 20 year period. The forecast is based on a combination of detailed regional

disaggregate forecasts in the short term (a period of 5 years) and on econometric models of total power sales in the longer term (more than 5 years). The short-term disaggregate forecast of large commercial and industrial power demands in each region is based on specific new industrial developments that have been identified plus an allowance for unspecified growth based on historic trends and expected future changes in these trends. The survey of new customers ( for specific new industrial

developments includes all the new loads that would be greater that 500 KVA in peak demand. The national power and energy demand forecast is broken down into r-eqi.onaL forecasts based on the disaggregate regional forecasts and also on the historical proportions of regional growth rates. " A-comprehensive set of load forecast modules which can be easily updated in the future has been developed and all essential data files and modules have been set up on a personal computer (IBM 8086/286) using the C programming language and the intel 80286 Assembly programming language.