Regional Perspectives of Early Warning Systems (Ews): a Case Study of Igad’s Response to Conflicts in the Horn of Africa

Abstract

Early Warning System has been in place for some time even though its operations have not significantly improved in Africa. For instance, despite the presence of CEWARN in the Horn of Africa the wave of conflicts continues to raise questions as to whether the mechanism has achieved its initial mandate. These existing gaps unless addressed the operation of CEWARN remains a case of a good policy undermined by poor implementation. The study establishes that Early Warning Systems was conceived as a means of protecting and preserving life. The study empirically reconstruct the historical development of conflict early warning in Africa; explores how CEWARN works, its successes and subsequently indicates the areas, modalities and challenges experienced in its operations. The study found out that accurate prediction of conflicts is impossible since main objects of analysis are human beings, human beings are complex and exhibit varied responses to similar stimuli. That early warning and response do not operate in a vacuum, they are part of sub regional peace and security project thus whatever weaknesses plague the working of sub regional organizations whether environment, legal, financial, human resource will have consequences on EWR or both. Hence sub regional organizations need to be strengthened and that regional EWS and response mechanisms should focus on improving the quality of reporting; the warning responses link and sensitivity among senior policy making of value of evidence based on decision making in situations of violent conflicts.