Climate change and conflict: A case study of Darfur conflict

Abstract

Climate change is expected to bring about major change in freshwater availability, the productive capacity of soils, and in patterns of human settlement. However, considerable uncertainties exist with regard to the extent and geographical distribution of these changes. Predicting scenarios for how climate related environmental change may influence human societies and political systems necessarily involves an even higher degree of uncertainty. The direst predictions about the impacts of global warming warn about greatly increased risks of violent conflict over increasingly scarce resources such as freshwater and arable land. Dry climate/hot leads to scarcity in pastoral lands, and water being a basic commodity becomes scares as well. It becomes a recipe for conflict when settlers in a particular locality as forced to move from a much drier area to a less familiar area, where there are chances of meeting another society moving to the same area over the same predicaments. This all means greater competition for land and scares resources. There is already growing evidence to support the theory that the current conflict in Darfur is partly due to land degradation as a result of climate change. Less than a generation ago, Africans and Arabs lived peacefully and productively in Darfur. More recently, desertification and increasingly regular drought cycles have diminished the availability of water and arable land, which has in turn, led to repeated clashes between pastoralists and farmers. Darfur provides a case study of how existing marginal situations can be exacerbated beyond the tipping point by climate-related factors. It also shows how lack of essential resources threatens not only individuals and their communities but also the region and the international community at large. In the first chapter, the study starts by identifying the problem to be researched on which is; climate change and conflict. The problem gives a guide on the research objectives which help to lead the research study. Closely related are the research hypothesis which aids the researcher to focus on the link between climate change and the Darfur conflict. The relevance of the study is identified that will aid in linking the climate change effects to conflicts due to reasons such as rise in Human Population and increase of human activities that result to resource scarcity and thus conflicts over access and control of the scarce resources. This chapter clearly shows that not much has been done on trying to dig out the means how climate change can result to conflict in spite of the great threat of conflicts that will arise in future as a result of climate change. The study adopted the neo Malthusian Theory that argues that population growth will exceed resource growth and t us resources will end up being scarce as a result of them being depleted by the rising populations to meet their needs. Chapter two focuses on the definition of concepts and a correlation of climate change and conflict. It identifies the main causes of climate change and how it eventually results to conflicts through the impact of the climate changes. Chapter three looks at the impact of the Conflict in Darfur. It looks at the several ways in which the locals of Darfur have been affected by the conflict in one way or the other. Chapter four covers the critical analysis of the research findings from the field on various aspects of the conflict. Chapter five give the Summary, Conclusion and recommendations.