Household Projections for Kenya

Abstract

The general objective of the study was to project the households in Kenya to the year 2030 using the 1999 population and housing census data. The study specifically looked at obtaining the age specific headship rates for Kenya as at 1999, projecting the population to the year 2030. The study makes use of the headship rates method to compute the projected households to the year 2030. The age specific headship rates are first computed for the base year. The population projections are also computed to year 2030. From both the age specific headship rates and the projected population; the projected households are then computed. The major findings of this study are that, using the age specific headship rate of the base year (1999), the households in Kenya would double by the year 2030. The households would increase from a low of 6.3 million , in 1999 to 7.1 million, 7.9 million, 8.8 million, 9.7 million, 10.8 million, and 12.1 million in the years 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 respectively. The rate of increase of the households is almost constant through out the projection period. The government will hence be forced to invest a lot in environmental management, housing and the general infrastructure like road networks, sewerage systems, etc. Policies should be set up and enforced to ensure proper land utility and management to house, feed and manage the ever increasing households.