Simulation of Air Pollution-Related Health Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment of Future Climate over Kenya

Abstract

Air pollution has intensified strongly since the industrial revolution. Studies clearly show that air quality has deteriorated on both global and regional scales. In parallel evidence that air pollution affect human health is increasing. While these health effects can occur in the absence of climate change, it is projected that the incidence, intensity and geographic distribution of these health outcomes will be influenced by climate change and the associated alteration in the weather patterns. This study seeks to simulate the air pollution-related human health impacts and conduct an assessment of the vulnerability to future climate in response to an identified need to understand the significance of climate change for the health of the citizens of Kenya. In this study the statistical epidemiological analyses of present-day respiratory case-air pollutionweather relationships based on data from conurbations in Kenya, will be combined with cJimatechemistry model simulations to quantify the weather-air pollution-respiratory incidence relationships across the entire country at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution. These relationships will be develoed both for present-day and under a range of future emission scenarios (RCPS) across the domain. The emissions scenarios span a range of possible emission futures from optimistic ("Maximum feasible reduction"), pessimistic (IPCC SRESA2) and current legislation. Present-day and future health burdens will be estimated and these will be evaluated within the context of adaptation and mitigation options. The study anticipates, based on the formulated hypothesis and set objectives that the young, old, poor, disabled and marginalized and crowded urban areas where much of the industrial activities are situated are among the most vulnerable groups and hotspots respectively. Areas of recent and future prospective mining activities coupled with low-lying terrains aiding air stagnation are also potential candidates of air pollution episodes. -. The outcomes of this study will,~ovide a platform for addressing and responding to cJimate change impacts-en human respiratory h-e-althin th~ ,country by serving as a basis for dialogue, priority setting and policy formulation on climate change adaptation on both national and local levels.