An Assessment of the effects of climate variability on Forest cover in Liberia

Abstract

This dissertation presents an assessment of the effects of climate variability on forest cover in Liberia. The objectives of the study were: to determine the spatial variability of rainfall, temperature, and NDVI, to determine the temporal variability of rainfall, temperature, and NDVI and to determine the relationship between rainfall, temperature, and NDVI. The methodology included: composite analysis of NDVI data, coefficient of variation analysis of rainfall and temperature, time series analysis of NDVI, rainfall and temperature and cross correlations of NDVI, rainfall and temperature. The data used in the study were: NDVI, and re-analyzed rainfall and temperature data. The results of the study showed that Liberia has a large forest area especially in the south-eastern region. NDVI, rainfall, and temperature spatially and temporally varies across the area of study. The spatial variation of the mean annual rainfall from 1983-2012 is 741.5-872.0 mm in the north-west, and 1275.7-1393.0 mm in the south-east, while the spatial variation of the main annual temperature is 21.9-22.3 degree Celsius in the north-west and 23.4-25.1 degree Celsius in the south-east. Temperature variation in the north-west is high and low in the southeast. The effect of this variation is attributed to the high forest cover in the south-east and low forest cover in the north-west. Rainfall, temperature and NDVI were found to be significantly correlated in the south-east. In conclusion, it is clear that, climate variability (rainfall and temperature) have effects on forest in Liberia. Some of the effects can be determine by the use of NDVI and re-analyzed data, especially where local data is limited. This dissertation recommends the following: Validation of the NDVI and re-analyzed data with ground truth data and a comprehensive study to fully understand the effects of climate variability and change on the forest of Liberia