A Systemic Approach To The Analysis Of The Feed Ingredient Scarcity In Kenya

Abstract

If every person in Kenya were to eat meat everyday like it is done in the developed world, then Kenya‟s beef herd would be exhausted in 400days, the total cattle herd in 600, and the sheep and goat flocks in 90. The country would have to expand its pig and poultry industries by vast proportions (7600 % and 4700% respectively). The size of the pig production industry is tiny, and though the poultry industry is the best in the region its current levels of production pale against the animal proteins required. Producers are mainly subsistence in nature. The main challenge to expanding the non-ruminant enterprises is feed costs and availability. Since a large proportion of all ingredients are imported it is not feasible that costs would come down soon or that availability will not be at the mercy of our neighbours; for even in the best of the weathers, Kenya still imports a significant amount of feedstuffs. A systemic approach technique used to analyse the challenge is reported. Identified causes and effects of the feed scarcity problem are presented. Several potential solutions to the challenge are assessed and the projections of their interventions reported. These include models of land use systems to grow three different cereals and three different proteins concentrates under rain or irrigation and using examples of Bura irrigation scheme. The conclusion from the analysis is that availability of animal protein for human food will remain a challenge unless some of the key interventions suggested are implemented. Key words: Animal feeds, systemic analysis