The effect of macroeconomic variables on the mortgage uptake for mortgage industry in Kenya

Abstract

The mortgage market plays a very important role in any economy. It is known to have a dramatic multiplier effect and is a key economic indicator. The mortgage market has experienced significant growth in the last decade with many countries experiencing mortgage boom. The Kenyan mortgage market has been experiencing a boom in the past ten years and the latest findings have shown that the trend will continue into the foreseeable future. To ensure the economy is proper positioned a study into forces behind the boom and hence the market growth is paramount. This study investigated the determinants of mortgage uptake. Monthly secondary data for a period of ten years spanning from 2004 to 2013 was collected from publications in government and financial institutions. Descriptive as well as multiple regressions were run using SPSS version 21.0. A multivariate regression model showing the relationship between mortgage uptake and various variables was tested. The results show that that there are significant negative relationship between mortgage uptake and inflation rates, and positive relationships with interest rate, and level of money supply. Interest rates have the most significant effect on mortgage uptake followed by GDP and level of money supply. Thus the rise in mortgage uptake is well explained by macroeconomic variables. Although the study established a positive relationship between mortgage uptake and interest rates, the relationship was found to be insignificant. The trend also indicates an overall increase in mortgage uptake with time hence the mortgage market in Kenya is expected to continue to grow. Even without significant changes in the variables, the effect of time is that mortgage uptake increase. This also indicates that the mortgage market is significantly stable.