Institute for Development Studies, University of Nairobi

This paper demonstrates the use of geomathematical techniques in testing growth centre hypotheses. The hypotheses are: i) in an urban-rural region, there exists a "development surface emanating from a number of interrelated measures of prosperity and economic development; ii) The degree of prosperity and development described by this surface is inversely related to distance from a major growth centre; iii) The surface is modified along directional sectors; iv) The degree of prosperity and development described by this surface is modified by the hierarchy of urbanism. The statistical techniques of principal components analysis, trend surface analysis, computer cartography, spatial regression were applied to "development" data for Nairobi. The analysis found that a development surface of considerable regularity exists, although the surface was not highly related the inverse of distance when analyzed concentrically; relatively high relations were discerned with the inverse of distance when analyzed along directional sectors. The hierarchy of urbanism was a significant variable affecting development a larger number of sectors, although its effect was major in only two sectors. Thus, a significant amount of regularity exists in the spatial pattern of development around Nairobi.