Time series analysis of extreme rainfall and temperature over Kenya

Abstract

The objective of this study was to determine the characteristics of extreme climatic events of rainfall maximum and minimum temperatures over Kenya.Tobe able to achieve this, the trend series and frequency analysis of these weather elements were carried out and then aligned to climate change. The aim of this study was to try and reduce the impacts of these extreme weather parameters on all spheres of life especially, the socio-economic. The various sectors include; water resources, Agriculture, health, Energy,Transport, just to mention a few In this study the weather parameters used were the monthly totals of rainfall, mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature data for the period 1961 to 2013. Twelve stations were used for rainfall and maximum and minimum temperature analysis. The entire data was obtained from the Kenya meteorological service (KMS). The missing data was estimated using the arithmetic mean method. The data was then subjected to data quality control using the single mass curve test for homogeneity. Itwas then standardized to help determine the extreme event where Z> +1andZ < -1 was taken to be an extreme event of positive and negative anomaly respectively. Time series for the parameters was done to determine the trend. The statistical significance of the trend was tested using t-test. The finding of this study has established an increase in negative e rainfall anomaly, the increase in positive maximum and minimum temperature anomalies and the decrease in negative maximum and minimum temperatures over Kenya may be linked to climate change.