Population growth and demand for rural and urban housing.

Abstract

In the future, population growth rates in Kenya will determine the rate of household formation in both urban and rural areas, which in turn will affect the demand for housing. Population growth rates are focused on in terms of their relation to the demand for urban and rural housing. First, present housing production in both settings is discussed. Populations are projected using 2 methods: a straightline extrapolation based on the trend between 1969 and 1979, and an econometric approach using wage employment as the predictive variable. Analysis encompasses: housing needs in the year 2000; housing costs; and the affordability of standard basic housing. A summary is presented of planning strategies to cope with population growth rates and the policy implications thereof, in relation to the demand for rural and urban housing. Urban housing upgrading and rehabilitation is urgently required to combat the worsening housing situation. The need exists to provide incentives to the private sector to construct low income housing. In rural areas, housing quality rather than quantity is the problem. The government should continue advancing loans to rural households that can afford to repay them. Housing policy formulations could be enhanced by family planning policies.