Multistate modelling vertical transmission and determination of r0 using transition intensities

Abstract

In this paper multi-state modelling is used to determine the proba- bility distribution of the di erent states of vertical transmission of HIV. We start with a healthy-infected-dead three state model which we then modify and extend to a four state healthy-infected-treated-Aids four state model. Using the matrix approach we calculate their respection transition probabilities and compare the two models using the basic re- production number. In both models R0 < 1 suggesting that this mode of transmission will eventually be contained.