Association between infant mortality and fertility change in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa begun to experience fertility decline in the latter part of the 1980s and especially after the initiation of fertility decline in other parts of the developing world during 1960s and 1970s.This decline has been associated with many factors. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between infant mortality and fertility change in 24 Sub- Saharan Africa countries for the period 2003 and 2014. This was primarily to provide us with a better understanding of the role that infant mortality plays in determining fertility change in Sub- Saharan Africa i.e. whether it plays a direct or indirect role. Data was obtained from Measure DHS – STATCOMPILER between 2003 and 2014. Standard multiple linear regression model was the main method of data analysis. The dependant variable was change of Total fertility rate between the last two surveys for the 24 Sub-Saharan countries while explanatory variable was Infant Mortality Rate. Other variables were also included as control variables. They included: use of any modern contraceptive, education status, place of residence and economic status. The results showed that infant mortality did not have a significant association with fertility change although, fertility change showed significant association with other control variables such as: Use of any modern contraceptive, education status and place of residence had an association at a multivariate level. A significant relationship was also seen between infant mortality and education status at bi-variate level of analysis hence we can say that infant mortality does not have a direct association with fertility change at all level of analysis but associates to it through other control variables like education status. This therefore leaves us with the implication that using macro data, infant mortality does not have a direct association with changes in fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa but has to pass through socio-economic and proximate factors. This study recommends that Sub-Saharan Africa countries should continue adopting more policies and programmes that encourage contraceptive use, urbanization and programmes that can improve education status for their residents since this will help them to achieve fertility decline and finally attain the replacement level of 2.1.