Determinants of fertility decline in Kenya

Abstract

Despite one of the longest existing population policies amidst record socio-economic development and relatively very low mortality rates amongst sub-Saharan African countries I Kenya's fertility remained high, resulting in one of the highest growth rates ever recorded for a national population around the 1980s. This puzzle hindered the general application of the classical demographic transition theory to predict the demographic future for Kenya. This led to a spirited debate on the suitability of the classical demographic transition theory as a universal model for predicting demographic transition patterns among sub-Saharan African countries, particularly why fertility decline was not in the offing, the widespread socio-economic development notwithstanding. The last decade, however, has witnessed one of the most rapid fertility declines in Kenya. Naturally therefore, it became necessary to investigate why Kenya's fertility is falling perhaps faster than it increased hitherto. The prime data source is the 1993 Demographic and Health Survey of Kenya. Fertility levels and trends are gauged using the conventional birth history analysis procedures, and by comparing rates from various surveys and censuses. Bongaarts framework is then used to decompose fertility into its constituent parts while logistic regression analysis is applied to study the 'background factors' that influenced fertility. Evidence shows that fertility rose rapidly during the 1960s and 1970s, the TFR rising from about 5.3 in 1962 to about 8.0 around 1980, but the pace somewhat slowed down during the latter period. Sustained rapid fertility decline ensued since the mid 1980s, declining from a TFR of 8.0 to 6.7 in 1989 and to 5.6 in 1993, with the pace accelerating for the periods closer to 1993. Increasing contraceptive prevalence among married women, which rose from 17 per cent in 1984 to 27 per cent in 1989 and 33 per cent in 1993, and changing marriage patterns especially the age at first marriage, which rose by about one year between 1989 and 1993, lie at the very root of this fertility decline. These changes are instigated by modernisation factors especially education, urbanisation and modern sector emploYment. Besides, government policies may have acted to create demand for fertility control, and improved accessibility to family planning services. These factors have acted to create a population that is willing, ready and able to control its fertility. However, despite the fact that there exists pockets of •contraceptive use rates in Kenya that parallel tho$e observed in some developed countries, certain sub-groups still exhibit very low use rates, in addition to marrying early. These include women from Western, Nyanza and Coast provinces, women from the Luo, Luhya, Kalenjin and coastal ethnic groups, traditional worshipers, women with less than completed primary education, and women who never worked in the modern sector. This was a major finding of this study. However, further investigation of the root, causes was hindered by the fact that the KDHS did not collect qualitative data that could explain these quantitative findings. Further research should therefore be undertaken in future to identify the causes of this resistance to change. This will facilitate the design of intervention measures to address these issues if Kenya's fertility 'decline is to continue until replacement level fertility is achieved