| dc.description.abstract | Despite one of the longest existing population policies amidst
record socio-economic development and relatively very low mortality
rates amongst sub-Saharan African countries I Kenya's fertility
remained high, resulting in one of the highest growth rates ever
recorded for a national population around the 1980s. This puzzle
hindered the general application of the classical demographic
transition theory to predict the demographic future for Kenya.
This led to a spirited debate on the suitability of the
classical demographic transition theory as a universal model for
predicting demographic transition patterns among sub-Saharan
African countries, particularly why fertility decline was not in
the offing, the widespread socio-economic development
notwithstanding. The last decade, however, has witnessed one of
the most rapid fertility declines in Kenya. Naturally therefore,
it became necessary to investigate why Kenya's fertility is falling
perhaps faster than it increased hitherto.
The prime data source is the 1993 Demographic and Health
Survey of Kenya. Fertility levels and trends are gauged using the
conventional birth history analysis procedures, and by comparing
rates from various surveys and censuses. Bongaarts framework is
then used to decompose fertility into its constituent parts while
logistic regression analysis is applied to study the 'background
factors' that influenced fertility.
Evidence shows that fertility rose rapidly during the 1960s
and 1970s, the TFR rising from about 5.3 in 1962 to about 8.0
around 1980, but the pace somewhat slowed down during the latter
period. Sustained rapid fertility decline ensued since the mid
1980s, declining from a TFR of 8.0 to 6.7 in 1989 and to 5.6 in
1993, with the pace accelerating for the periods closer to 1993.
Increasing contraceptive prevalence among married women, which rose
from 17 per cent in 1984 to 27 per cent in 1989 and 33 per cent in
1993, and changing marriage patterns especially the age at first
marriage, which rose by about one year between 1989 and 1993, lie
at the very root of this fertility decline.
These changes are instigated by modernisation factors
especially education, urbanisation and modern sector emploYment.
Besides, government policies may have acted to create demand for
fertility control, and improved accessibility to family planning
services. These factors have acted to create a population that is
willing, ready and able to control its fertility.
However, despite the fact that there exists pockets of
•contraceptive use rates in Kenya that parallel tho$e observed in
some developed countries, certain sub-groups still exhibit very low
use rates, in addition to marrying early. These include women from
Western, Nyanza and Coast provinces, women from the Luo, Luhya,
Kalenjin and coastal ethnic groups, traditional worshipers, women
with less than completed primary education, and women who never
worked in the modern sector. This was a major finding of this
study. However, further investigation of the root, causes was
hindered by the fact that the KDHS did not collect qualitative data
that could explain these quantitative findings. Further research
should therefore be undertaken in future to identify the causes of
this resistance to change. This will facilitate the design of
intervention measures to address these issues if Kenya's fertility
'decline is to continue until replacement level fertility is
achieved | en |
