The predictive validity of the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education examination scores in determining academic success of girls: a case study of National Public Secondary schools

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to examine the validity of the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (KCPE) examination scores in predicting academic successes for girl's students in secondary schools in Kenya using Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE) as a criterion measure. Success in secondary schools was measured by the level of examinee achievement in the Kenya using Kenya Certificate of Secondary Education (KCSE). The predictor variables are KCPE scores in English, Kiswahili, Mathematics and overall performance in KCPE, the criterion variable was KCSE. Success in secondary school is measured by the level of examinee achievement in KCSE.

The process involves a case study on the public National Secondary Schools in Kenya, which best represents the Kenya Society as intake in those institutions is done on quota system. They are the most prestigious schools as they admit the top performing primary schools candidates across the nation. The facilities in those schools are comparable. Six girls' public national schools in Kenya were used in the sample. The 2006 KCSE data for 809 examinees in the sample were used in the analysis. The KCSE records for examinees in the same were matched with corresponding 2002 KCPE records. The nature of relationship between KCPE and KCPE was determined by use of stepwise regression analysis.

A moderate linear relationship between KCPE and KCSE was found. The predictive validity did not significantly vary from one school to other. Only mathematics showed a significant influence on the KCPE-KCSE predictive relationship. The relationship indicated that KCPE is a moderately valid predictor of success of girls in secondary school.